Time： 2017-03-16 │ Click：
With the large growth of iron ore consumption in China and the inability of domestic iron ore production to meet the demand, the amount of imported iron ore increased from 148 million tons in 2003 to 1.024 billion tons in 2016, and the dependence on iron ore from 44.4 % Rose to 87.3%. The next period, China's iron and steel industry will continue to face the challenge of iron ore safety supply protection.
In the context of the government work report put forward in 2017 will be solidly promote the "area along the way" construction, how should we seize the opportunity to strengthen the iron ore safety supply security system from a strategic height?
From the current situation, the global iron ore market following "three characteristics" will exist for a long time.
Global iron ore trade is highly concentrated. At present, the global iron ore supply market is highly concentrated in two countries, four companies. In 2016, Australia, Brazil, iron ore exports accounted for about 80% of global exports, iron ore production in the four major mines accounted for about 67% of global iron ore trade.
The main importers of iron ore are China, Japan and South Korea. In 2016, China imported 1.04 billion tons of iron ore, accounting for about 67.4% of the world's total imports; Japan imported iron ore 130 million tons, accounting for about 8.6%; South Korea imported iron ore 79 million tons, accounting for about 5.2 %. In 2016, the three countries imported a total of 1.233 billion tons, accounting for about 81.1% of total global imports.
Global iron ore will remain oversupply. In 2017, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, FMG, Vale and other four mines will increase production of 30 million tons, taking into account Roy Hill (Roy Hill), China and Australia SINO iron ore and other production capacity gradually released, and part of the high cost of mine production capacity, etc. The situation is expected in 2017 the global iron ore supply will increase by about 50 million tons. China's iron ore demand as the largest country in the steel industry has entered the context of the development of the reduction in the context of the overall and long term, iron ore demand into the decline in the channel will be an inevitable trend. Therefore, from a global perspective, the pattern of iron ore oversupply will exist for some time in the future.
China's iron ore is highly dependent on imports. Although China's iron ore resources are large, but its "poor, scattered, fine, miscellaneous" endowment characteristics, determines its mining conditions, operating costs and other aspects of congenital deficiencies. For example, according to statistics, the average production cost of iron ore in China 80 US dollars / ton, is the international iron ore giant production costs nearly 4 times the market competitiveness is weak, gradually formed a "inefficient and inefficient production capacity, Production capacity is seriously inadequate "predicament. At the same time, despite the Chinese steel into the reduction of development channels, but will remain high, the demand for iron ore is still huge. It is expected that by 2030, China's dependence on foreign iron ore will remain at 85% or more. Therefore, the domestic mine can only be an effective supplement and strategic reserves of imported ore, highly dependent on the pattern of imported ore is difficult to crack in the short term.
China is the world's largest iron ore consumer market, demand accounts for nearly 60% of the global total, but China's iron and steel industry concentration is low, the scale of overseas equity mines, the lack of competitiveness, leading to China's iron and steel industry in the iron ore market The iron ore price fluctuates violently, which seriously affects the safe and stable operation of China's iron and steel industry under the trend of short-term iron ore agreement dominated by four major mines, pricing index and trading financial trend.
Overall, China's high-cost mines are mostly closed, overseas equity mine construction stagnation, external dependence has expanded, the source of imported iron ore concentrated in Australia and Brazil, and more than 90% of marine iron ore, Need to go through the South China Sea region, a single transport channel. Therefore, China's iron ore resources security system construction is facing severe challenges, improve the iron ore resources supply security system is imminent.
For how to strengthen the safety of iron ore resources, the recommendations are as follows:
First, establish the bottom line of thinking, stable domestic mineral production.
Through the policy support, macro guidance, the establishment of iron ore enterprises "white list" to carry out standardized management to support a number of highly competitive domestic iron ore enterprise development, through large-scale, intensive development, improve mine management level, improve the ecological environment, Strengthen the domestic iron ore supply base protection role.
Second, to enhance the proportion of overseas low-cost high-quality equity mine supply.
With the help of the national "one side of the road" initiative to strengthen the international cooperation in steel production capacity to achieve the steel industry chain "going out", with the countries along the formation of mutually beneficial win-win relationship under the premise of building overseas low-cost high-quality iron ore supply base, Mine supply ratio.
Third, increase scrap supply and reduce iron ore consumption.
Speed up the construction of scrap processing and distribution system, and regulate the flow of scrap resources. Support scrap cars, scrap ships and other waste dismantling industry standardization, agglomeration development. To the industrialization, product, regional as the direction, around the scrap processing demonstration base construction and layout optimization, to expand the standardization, standardization of scrap processing and distribution enterprises processing capacity and distribution capacity.
Fourth, to promote the establishment of an objective reflection of the relationship between supply and demand of iron ore pricing mechanism.
At present, the iron ore market is in the transition period, which is to promote the pricing mechanism to optimize the opportunity period. Promote the pricing mechanism optimization, one is to promote the diversification of iron ore pricing; the second is to actively promote the iron ore futures and iron ore trading platform for healthy development, give full play to its price discovery function to prevent excessive financial speculation; To carry out steel and ore price linkage research, to promote the establishment of an objective reflection of supply and demand, to achieve the sustainable development of upstream and downstream iron ore pricing mechanism.
Five is the innovation model, improve the "going out" service guarantee mechanism.
First, to strengthen the overseas iron ore investment model; Secondly, to strengthen economic and trade, finance and taxation, foreign exchange, customs, foreign policy coordination and support; and then second, to strengthen overseas iron ore exploration and development of risk monitoring and early warning mechanism; Finally, Mining senior management personnel and technical personnel.